MGI substitution potential meets German demography

35 percent of employees in Germany work in roles that an AI agent could structurally take over, according to a new McKinsey study. The highest share in Europe — roughly 16 million people in absolute terms.

The professions: accountants, administrative assistants, software developers. From this, McKinsey calculates a productivity potential of 486 billion dollars for Germany by 2030.

McKinsey itself adds a caveat: embedding AI tools into existing processes is not enough — only redesigning workflows yields substantial productivity gains. The numbers show technical feasibility, not a forecast.

If McKinsey is right about the potential, the question is no longer whether this automation happens, but how fast — and what it means for the labor market. Demographically, Germany urgently needs part of this potential: by 2035, the working-age population will shrink by up to 7 million people without sufficient immigration, as the baby boomers retire and the next generation isn't large enough to fill the gap. But it has to be said openly: 16 million potentially automatable jobs against up to 7 million in demographic relief means rising unemployment by several million people — unless new, different jobs emerge in the same timeframe.

This is not grounds for sensationalist AI panic, but it is also not grounds for the comforting line that "every technological revolution has ultimately created more jobs." It is a development that could affect millions of people, and it has to be managed.

Study: McKinsey Global Institute, "Agents, robots, and us" (May 2026) https://www.mckinsey.com/mgi/our-research/agents-robots-and-us-how-ai-reshapes-work-and-skills-in-europe